Other Observations upon the Plague, and Casualties.
2. By the numbers and proportions of Christnings, therefore we observe as followeth, viz.
First, That (when from December, 1602, to March following, there was little, or no Plague) then the Christnings at a Medium, were between 110, and 130 per Week, few Weeks being above the one, or below the other; but when from thence to July the Plague increased, that then the Christenings decreased to under 90.
Secondly, The Question is, Whether Teeming-women died, or fled, or miscarried? The later at this time, seems most probable, because even in the said space, between March, and July, there died not above twenty per Week of the Plague, which small number could neither cause the death, or flight of so many Women, as to alter the proportion 1/4 part lower.
3. Moreover, we observe from the 21 of July to
the 21 of October, the Plague increasing, reduced the
Christnings to 70 at a Medium, diminishing the above
proportion, down to 2/5. Now the cause of this must be flying, and death, as
well as miscarriages, and Abortions; for there died within that time about
25000, whereof many were certainly Women with childe, besides the
fright of so many dying within so small a time might drive away so many others,
as to cause this effect.|
4. From December 1624, to the middle of April 1625, there died not above 5 a Week of the Plague one with another. In this time, the Christnings were one with another 180. The which decreased gradually by the 22 of September to 75, or from the proportion of 12 to 5, which evidently squares with our former Observation.
5. The next Observation we shall offer, is, The time wherein the City hath been Re-Peopled after a great Plague; which we affirm to be by the second year. For in 1627, the Christnings (which are our Standard in this Case) were 8408, which in 1624 next preceding the Plague year 1625 (that had swept away above 54000) were but 8299, and the Christnings of 1626 (which were but 6701) mounted in one year to the said 8408.
6. Now the Cause hereof, for as much as it cannot be a supply by Procreations; Ergo, it must be by new Affluxes to London out of the Countrey.
7. We might fortifie this Assertion by shewing, that before the Plague- year, 1603, the Christnings were about 6000, which were in that very year reduced to 4789, but crept up the next year 1604, to 5458, re
covering their former ordinary proportion in 1605 of 6504, about which
proportion it stood till the year 1610.|
8. I say, it followeth, that, let the Mortality be what
it will, the City repairs its loss of Inhabitants within two years, which
Observation lessens the Objection made against the value of houses in
London, as if they were liable to great prejudice through the loss
of Inhabitants by the Plague.
2. Such sickly years were 1618, 20, 23, 24, 1632, 33, 34, 1649, 52,
54, 56, 58, 61, as may be seen by the Tables.|
3. In reference to this Observation, we shall present another, namely, That the more sickly the years are, the less fecund, or fruitfull of Children also they be, which will appear, if the number of Children born in the said sickly years be less, then that of the years both next preceding, and the next following; all which, upon view of the Tables, will be found true, except in a very few Cases, where sometimes the precedent, and sometimes the subsequent years vary a little, but never both together. Moreover, for the confirmation of this Truth, we present you the year 1660, where the Burials were fewer then in either of the two next precedent years by 2000, and fewer then in the subsequent by above 4000. And withall, the number of Christnings in the said year 1660 was far greater then in any of the three years next aforegoing.
4. As to this year 1660, although we could not be thought Superstitious, yet is it not to be neglected, that in the said year was the King's Restauration to his Empire over these three Nations, as if God Almighty had caused the healthfulness and fruitfulness thereof to repair the Bloodshed, and Calamities suffered in his absence. I say, this conceit doth abundantly counterpoise the Opinion of those who think great Plagues come in with Kings reigns, because it hapned so twice, viz. Anno 1603, and 1625, whereas as well the year 1648, wherein the present King commenced his right to reign, as also the year 1660, wherein he commenced
the exercise of the same, were both eminently healthfull, which clears both
Monarchie, and our present King's Familie from what
seditious men have surmised against them.|
5. The Diseases, which beside the Plague make years unhealthfull in this City, are Spotted Feavers, Small Pox, Dysentery, called by some The Plague in the Guts, and the unhealthfull Season is the Autumn.
2. From this single Observation it will follow, That London hath decreased in its People, the contrary whereof we see by its daily increase of Buildings upon new Foundations, and by the turning of great Palacious Houses into small Tenements. It is therefore certain, that London is supplied with People from
out of the Countrey, whereby not onely to repair the overplus difference of
Burials above-mentioned, but likewise to increase its
Inhabitants according to the said increase of housing.|
3. This supplying of London seems to be the reason, why Winchester, Lincoln, and several other Cities have decreased in their Buildings, and consequently in their Inhabitants. The same may be suspected of many Towns in Cornwal, and other places, which probably, when they were first allowed to send Burgesses to the Parliament, were more populous then now, and bore another proportion to London then now; for several of those Burroughs send two Burgesses, whereas London it self sends but four, although it bears the fifteenth part of the charge of the whole Nation in all Publick Taxes, and Levies.
4. But, if we consider what I have upon exact enquiry found true, viz. That in the Countrie, within ninetie years, there have been 6339 Christnings, and but 5280 Burials, the increase of London will be salved without inferring the decrease of the People in Countrie; and withall, in case all England have but fourteen times more People then London, it will appear, how the said increase of the Country may increase the People, both of London, and it self; for if there be in the 97, 16, 10, and 7 Parishes, usually comprehended within our Bills, but 460000, for those in, and about London, there remains 5980000 in the Countrie, the which increasing about 1/7 part in 40 years, as we shall hereafter prove, doth
happen in the Countrie, the whole increase of the Countrie will be about
854000 in the said time, out of which number, if but about 250000 be sent
up to London in the said 40 years, viz. about 6000
per Annum, the said Missions will make good the
alterations, which we finde to have been in, and about London,
between the years 1603 and 1644 above-mentioned. But that 250000 will do
the same, I prove thus, viz. in the 8 years, from 1603 to
1612, the Burials in all the Parishes, and of all Diseases,
the Plague included, were at a Medium 9750 per
Annum. And between 1635 and 1644 were 18000, the difference
whereof is 8250, which is the Total of the increase of the
Burials in 40 years, that is about 206 per Annum.
Now, to make the Burials increase 206 per Annum,
there must be added to the City thirty times as many (according to the
proportion of 3 dying out of 41 Families) viz. 6180
Advenæ, the which number multiplied again by the 40 years,
makes the Product 247200, which is less then the 250000 above
propounded; so as there remains above 600000 of increase in the Countrie
within the said 40 years, either to render it more populous, or send forth
into other Colonies, or Wars. But that England hath fourteen
times more People, is not improbable, for the Reasons following.|
1. London is observed to bear about the fifteenth proportion of the whole Tax.
2. There is in England, and Wales, about 39000 square Miles of Land, and we have computed that in one of the greatest Parishes in Hampshire, being also a Market-Town, and containing twelve square Miles, there are 220 souls in every square Mile, out
of which I abate 1/4 for the overplus of People more in that parish, then in
other wilde Counties. So as the 3/4 parts of the said 220, multiplied by the
Total of square Miles, produces 6400000 souls in all London
3. There are about 100000 parishes in England, and Wales, the which, although they should not contain the 1/3 part of the Land, nor the 1/4 of the People of that Country-Parish, which we have examined, yet may be supposed to contain about 600 People, one with another, according to which Accompt there will be six Millions of People in the nation. I might add, that there are in England, and Wales, about five and twenty Millions of Acres at 16 1/2 Foot to the Perch; and if there be six Millions of People, then there is about four Acres for every head, which how well it agrees to the Rules of Plantation, I leave unto others, not onely as a means to examine my Assertion, but as an hint to their enquiry concerning the fundamental Trade, which is Husbandrie, and Plantation.
4. Upon the whole matter we may therefore conclude, That the People of the whole Nation do increase, and consequently the decrease of Winchester, Lincoln, and other like places, must be attributed to other Reasons, then that of refurnishing London onely.
5. We come to shew, why although in the Country the Christnings exceed the Burials, yet in London they do not. The general Reason of this must be, that in London the proportion of those subject to die unto those capable of breeding is greater than
in the Country; That is, let there be an hundred Persons in London,
and as many in the Country; we say, that if there be 60 of them Breeders in
London, there are more then 60 in the Country, or else we must say,
thatLondon is more unhealthfull, or that it enclines men and women
more to Barrenness, then the Country, which by comparing the Burials, and
Christnings of Hackney, Newington, and other Country-Parishes, with
the most Smoaky, and Stinking parts of the City, is
scarce discernable in any considerable degree.|
6. Now that the Breeders in London are proportionally fewer then those in the Country arises from these reasons, viz.
1. All that have business to the Court of the King, or to the Courts of Justice, and all Country-men coming up to bring Provisions to the City, or to buy Foreign Commodities, Manufactures, and Rarities, do for the most part leave their Wives in the Country.
2. Persons coming to live in London out of curiosity, and pleasure, as also such as would retire, and live privately, do the same, if they have any.
3. Such, as come up to be cured of Diseases, do scarce use their Wives pro tempore.
4. That many Apprentices of London, who are bound seven, or nine years from Marriage, do often stay longer voluntarily.
5. That many Sea-men of London leave their Wives behind them, who are more subject to die in the absence of their Husbands, then to breed either without men, or with the use of many promiscuously.
6. As for unhealthiness it may well be supposed,
that although seasoned Bodies may, and do live near as long in
London, as elsewhere, yet new-comers, and Children do not, for the
Smoaks, Stinks, and close Air are less healthfull than
that of the Country; otherwise why do sickly Persons remove into the Country
Air? And why are there more old men in Countries then in London,
per rata? And although the difference in Hackney, and
Newington, above-mentioned, be not very notorious, yet the reason
may be their vicinity to London, and that the Inhabitants are most
such, whose bodies have first been impaired with the London air,
before they withdraw thither.|
7. As to the causes of Barrenness in London, I say, that although there should be none extraordinary in the Native Air of the place, yet the intemperance in feeding, and especially the Adulteries and Fornications, supposed more frequent in London then elsewhere, do certainly hinder breeding. For a Woman, admitting 10 Men, is so far from having ten times as many Children, that she hath none at all.
8. Add to this, that the minds of men in London are more thoughtfull and full of business then in the Country, where their work is corporal Labour, and Exercizes. All which promote Breedings, whereas Anxieties of the minde hinder it.