Of the Plague.
There have been in London, within this Age, four Times of great Mortality, that is to say, the years 1592, and 1593, 1603, 1625, and 1636.
2. Now it is manifest of it self, in which of these years most died; but in which of them was the greatest Mortality of all Diseases in general, or of the Plague in particular, we discover thus. In the year 1592, and 1636, we finde the proportion of those dying of the Plague in the whole to be
near alike, that is about 10 to 23. or 11 to 25. or as about two to five.|
3. In the year 1625. we finde the Plague to bear unto the whole in proportion as 35 to 51. or 7 to 10. that is almost the triplicate of the former proportion, for the Cube of 7.being 343. and the Cube of 10. being 1000. the said 343. is not 2/5 of 1000.
4. In Anno 1603. the proportion of the Plague to the whole was as 30 to 37. viz. as 4. to 5. which is yet greater then that last of 7 to 20. For if the Year 1625. had been as great a Plague-Year as 1603. there must have died not onely 7 to 10. but 8 to 10. which in those great numbers makes a vast difference.
5. We must therefore conclude the Year 1603. to have been the greatest Plague-Year of this age.
6. Now to know in which of these 4. was the greatest Mortality at large, we reason thus,
7. From whence it appears, that Anno 1636. the Christnings were about 2/5. parts of the Burials. Anno
1592. but 1/6. but in the Year 1603. and 1625. not above an eighth, so
that the said two Years were the Years of greatest Mortality.
We said that the year 1603. was the greatest Plague year. And
now we say, that the same was not a greater year of Mortality
than Anno 1625. Now to reconcile these two Positions, we must
alledg, that Anno 1625. there was errour in the Accompts, or
Distinctions of the Casualties; that is, more died of the
Plague than were accompted for under that name. Which
Allegation we also prove, thus, viz. |
8. In the said year 1625. there are said to have died of the Plague 35417. and of all other Diseases 18848. whereas in the years, both before and after the same, the ordinary number of burials was between 7. and 8000. so that if we add about 11000. (which is the difference between 7. and 18) to our 35. the whole will be 46000. which bears to the whole 54000. as about 4. to 5. thereby rendering the said year 1625. to be as great a Plague- year as that of 1603. and no greater, which answers to what we proved before, viz. that the Mortality of the two Years was equal.
9. From whence we may probably suspect that about 1/4. part more died of the Plague then are returned for such; which we further prove by noting, that Anno 1636. there died 10400. of the Plague, the 1/4. whereof is 2600. Now there are said to have died of all diseases that Year 12959. out of which number deducting 2600. there remains 10359. more then which there died not in several years next before and after the said year 1636.
10. The next Observation we shall offer is, that the
Plague of 1603. lasted eight Years. In some whereof there died above
4000, in others above 2000, and in but one less then 600: whereas in the Year
1624. next preceding, and in the year 1626. next following the said great
Plague- year 1625. There died in the former but 11, and in the
latter but 134. of the Plague. Moreover in the said year 1625. the
Plague decreased from its utmost number 4461 a week, to below 1000
within six weeks.|
11. The Plague of 1636. lasted twelve Years, in eight whereof there died 2000. per annum one with another, and never under 300. The which shews, that the Contagion of the Plague depends more upon the Disposition of the Air, then upon the Effluvia from the Bodies of Men.
12. Which also we prove by the sudden jumps, which the Plague hath made, leaping in one Week from 118 to 927: and back again from 993 to 258: and from thence again the very next Week to 852. The which effects must surely be rather attributed to change of the Air, then of the Constitution of Mens bodies, otherwise then as this depends upon that.
13. It may be also noted, that many times other Pestilential Diseases, as Purple-Feavers, Small-Pox, &c. do forerun the Plague a Year, two or three, for in 1622; there died but 8000. in 1623; 11000: in 24. about 12000: till in 1625 there died of all Diseases above 54000.