Of the number of Inhabitants.
2. First, I imagined, That, if the Conjecture of the worthy Person afore-mentioned had any truth in it, there must needs be about six, or seven Million of People in London now; but repairing to my Bills I found, that not above 15000 per Annum were buried, and consequently, that not above one in four hundred must die per Annum, if the Total were but six Millions.
3. Next considering, That it is esteemed an even Lay, whether any man lives ten years longer, I supposed it was the same, that one of any 10 might die within one year. But when I considered, that of the 15000
afore-mentioned about 5000 were Abortive, and Stil-born,
or died of Teeth, Convulsion, Rickets, or as Infants,
and Chrysoms, and Aged. I concluded, that of men, and
women, between ten and sixty, there scarce died 10000 per Annum in
London, which number being multiplied by 10, there must be but
100000 in all, that is not the 1/60 part of what the Alderman
imagined. These were but sudden thoughts on both sides, and both far from
truth, I thereupon endeavoured to get a little nearer, thus: viz.
4. I considered, that the number of Child-bearing women might be about double to the Births: forasmuch as such women, one with another, have scarce more then one Childe in two years. The number of Births I found, by those years, wherein the Registries were well kept, to have been somewhat less then the Burials. The Burials in these late years at a Medium are about 13000, and consequently the Christnings not above 12000. I therefore esteemed the number of Teeming women to be 24000: then I imagined, that there might be twice as many Families, as of such women; for that there might be twice as many women Aged between 16 and 76, as between 16 and 40, or between 20 and 44; and that there were about eight Persons in a Family, one with another, viz. the Man, and his Wife, three Children, and three Servants, or Lodgers: now 8 times 48000 makes 384000.
5. Secondly, I finde by telling the number of Families in some Parishes within the walls, that 3 out of 11 families per an. have died: wherefore, 13000 having died in the whole, it should follow, there were 48000 Families according to the last mentioned Accompt.
6. Thirdly, the Accompt, which I made of the Trayned-
Bands, and auxiliary Souldiers, doth enough justify this
7. And lastly I took the Map of London set out in the year 1658 by Richard Newcourt, drawn by a scale of Yards. Now I guessed that in 100 yards square there might be about 54 Families, supposing every house to be 20 foot in the front: for on two sides of the said square there will be 100 yards of housing in each, and in the two other sides 80 each; in all 360 yards: that is 54 Families in each square, of which there are 220 within the Walls, making in all 11880 Families within the Walls. But forasmuch as there dy within the Walls about 3200 per Annum, and in the whole about 13000; it follows, that the housing within the Walls is 1/4. part of the whole, and consequently, that there are 47520 Families in, and about London, which agrees well enough with all my former computations: the worst whereof doth sufficiently demonstrate, that there are no Millions of People in London, which nevertheless most men do believe, as they do, that there be three Women for one Man, whereas there are fourteen Men for thirteen Women, as else where hath been said.
8. We have (though perhaps too much at Random) determined the number of the inhabitants of London to be about 384000: the which being granted, we assert, that 199112 are Males, and 184886 Females.
9. Where as we have found, that of 100 quick Conceptions about 36 of them die before they be six years old, and that perhaps but one surviveth
76, we, having seven Decads between six and 76, we sought six
mean proportional numbers between 64, the remainer, living at six years,
and the one, which survives 76, and finde, that the numbers following are
practically near enough to the truth; for men do not die in exact
Proportions, nor in Fractions: from when arises this Table following.|
10. From whence it follows, that of the said 100 conceived there remains alive at six years end 64.
11. It follows also, that of all, which have been conceived, there are now alive 40 per Cent. above sixteen years old, 25 above twenty six years old, & sic deinceps, as in the above Table: there are therefore of Aged between 16, and 56, the number of 40, less by six, viz. 34; of between 26, and 66, the number of 25 less by three, viz. 22: sic deniceps.
Wherefore, supposing there be 199112 Males, and the number between 16, and 56, being 34. It follows, there are 34 per Cent. of all those Males fighting Men in London, that is 67694, viz. near 70000: the truth whereof I leave to examination, only the 1/5. of 67694, viz. 13539. is to be added for Westminster, Step
ney, Lambeth, and the other distant Parishes, making in all 81233
12. The next enquiry shall be, In how long time the City of London shall, by the ordinary proportion of Breeding, and Dying, double its breeding People. I answer in about seven years, and (Plagues considered) eight. Wherefore since there be 24000 pair of Breeders, that is 1/8. of the whole, it follows, that in eight times eight years the whole People of the City shall double without the access of Foreigners: the which contradicts not our Accompt of its growing from two to five in 56 years with such accesses.
13. According to the this proportion, one couple viz.
Adam and Eve, doubling themselves every 64 years of the
5610 years, which is the age of the World according to the
Scriptures, shall produce far more People, than are now in it.
Wherefore the World is not above 100 thousand years, old as some vainly Imagine,
nor above what the Scripture makes it.
and Healthfulness, nor for the contrary. Upon which Tables we
1. That every Wedding, one with another, produces four Children, and consequently, that that is the proportion of Children, which any Marriagable man, or woman may be presumed shall have. For, though a man may be Married more then once, yet, being once Married, he may die without any Issue at all.
2. That in this Parish there were born 15 Females for 16 Males, whereas in London, there were 13 for 14, which shews, that London is somewhat more apt to produce Males, then the country. And it is possible, that in some other places there are more Females born, then males, which, upon this variation of proportion, I again recommend to the examination of the curious.
3. That in the said whole 90 years the Burials of the Males and Females were exactly equal, and that in several Decads they differed not 1/100 part, that in one of the two Decads, wherein the difference was very notorious, there were Buried of Males 337, and of Females but 284, viz. 53 difference, and in the other there died contrariwise 338 Males, and 386 Females, differing 46.
4. There are also Decads, where the Birth of Males and Females differ very much, viz. about 60.
5. That in the said 90 years there have been born more, then buried in the said Parish, (the which both 90 years ago, and also now, consisted of about 2700 Souls) but 1059, viz. not 12 per Annum, one year with another.
6. That these 1059 have in all probability contributed to the increase of London; since, as was said even
now, it neither appears by the Burials, Christnings, or by the
built of new-housing, that the said Parish is more populous now, then 90
years ago, by above two or 300 souls. Now, if all other places send about
1/3 of their encrease, viz. about one out of 900 of their
Inhabitants Annually to London, and that there be
14 times as many people in England, as there be in
London, (for which we have given some reasons) then
London encreases by such Advenae every year above
6000; the which will make the Accompt of Burials to swell
about 200 per Annum, and will answer the encreases. We
observe it is clear, that the said Parish is encreased about 300, and it
is probable, that three or four hundred more went to London,
and it is known, That about 400 went to New-England, the
Caribe-Islands, and New-found- Land, within these
last fourty years.|
7. According to the Medium of the said whole 90 years, there have been five Christnings for four Burials, although in some single Years, and Decads, there have been three to two, although sometimes (though more rarely) the Burials have exceeded the Births, as in the case of Epidemical Diseases.
8. Our former Observation, That healthfull years are also the most fruitfull, is much confirmed by our Country Accompts; for, 70 being our Standard for Births, and 58 for Burials, you shall finde, that where fewer then 58 died, more then 70 were born. Having given you a few instances thereof, I shall remit you to the Tables for the general proof of this Assertion. Viz. Anno 1633, when 103 were born, there died but 29. Now, in none of the whole 90 years more were born then 103, and but in one, fewer then 29 died, viz.
28 Anno 1658. Again Anno 1568, when 93 were born, but
42 died. Anno 1584, when 90 were born, but 41 died.
Anno 1650, when 86 were born, but 52 died. So that by how much more
are born, by as much (as it were) the fewer die. For when 103 were born, but 29
died: but when but 86 were born, then 52 died.|
On the other side Anno 1638, when 156 died per Annum, which was the greatest year of Mortality, then less then the meer Standard 70, viz. but 66 were born. Again Anno 1644, when 137 died, but 59 were born. Anno 1597, when 117 died, but 48 were born. And Anno 1583, when 87 died, but 59 were born.
A little Irregularity may be found herein, as that Anno 1612, when 116 died (viz. a number double to our Standard 58 yet) 87 (viz. 17 about the Standard 70) were born. And that when 89 died 075 were born: but these differences are not so great, nor so often, as to evert our Rule, which besides the Authority of these Accompts is probable in it self.
9. Of all the said 90 years the year 1638 was the most Mortal, I therefore enquired whether the Plague was then in that parish, and having received good satisfaction that it was not (which I the rather believe, because, that the Plague was not then considerable at London) but that it was a Malignant Fever raging so fiercely about Harvest, that there appeared scarce hands enough to take in the Corn: which argues, considering there were 2700 Parishioners, that seven might be sick for one that died: whereas of the Plague more die then recover. Lastly, these People lay long
er sick then is usual in the Plague, nor was there any mention of
Sores, Swellings, blew-Tokens, &c. among them. It follows, that the
proportion between the greatest and the least
Mortalities in the Country are far greater then at London.
Forasmuch as the greatest 156 is above quintuple unto 28 the least,
whereas in London (the Plague excepted, as here it hath
been) the number of Burials upon other Accompts within no Decad of
years hath been double, whereas in the Country it hath been
quintuple not onely within the whole 90 years, but also within the
same Decad: for Anno 1633, there died but 29, and
Anno 1638 the above-mentioned number of 156. Moreover, as in
London, in no Decad, the Burials of one year are double
to those of another: so in the Country they are seldom not more then so. As by
this Table appears,|
Which shews, that the opener, and freer Airs are most subject
both to the good and bad Impressions, and that the Fumes, Steams,
and Stenches of London do so medicate, and impregnate
the Air about it, that it becomes capable of little more, as if the
said Fumes rising out of London met with, opposed, and
justled backwards the Influences falling from above, or resisted the Incursion
of the Country-Airs. |
10. In the last Paragraph we said, that the Burials in the Country were sometimes quintuple to one another, but of the Christnings we affirm, that within the same Decad they are seldome double, as appears by this Table, viz.
Now, although the disproportions of Births be not so great as that of Burials, yet these disproportions are
far greater then at London; for let it be shewn in any of the
London Bills, that within two years the Christnings have
decreased 1/2. or increased double, as they did Anno 1584, when 90
were born, and An. 1586, wherein were but 45: or to rise from 52, as
Anno 1593, to 71, as in the next year 1594. Now, those
disproportions both in births, and Burials, confirm what hath been before
Asserted, that Healthfulness, and Fruitfulness go
together, as they would not, were there not disproportions in both, although
11. By the Standard of Burials in this parish, I thought to have computed the number of Inhabitants in it, viz. by multiplying 58 by 4, which made the Product 232, the number of Families. Hereupon I wondered, that a Parish containing a large Market-Town, and 12 Miles compass, should have but 232 Houses, I then multiplied 232 by 8, the Product whereof was 1856, thereby hoping to have had the number of the Inhabitants, as I had for London; but when upon enquiry I found there had been 2100 Communicants in that parish in the time of a Minister, who forced too many into that Ordinance, and that 1500 was the ordinary number of Communicants at all times, I found also, that for as much as there were near as many under 16 years old, as there are above, viz. Communicants, I concluded, that there must be about 27, or 2800 Souls in that parish: from whence it follows, that little more then one of 50 dies in the Country, whereas in London, it seems manifest, that about one in 32 dies, over and above what dies of the Plague.
12. It follows therefore from hence, what I more
faintly asserted in the former Chapter, that the Country is more
healthfull, then the City, That is to say, although men die more
regularly, and less per Saltum in London, then in the
Country, yet upon the whole matter, there die fewer per Rata; so as
the Fumes, Steams, and Stenches above-mentioned, although they make the Air of
London more equal, yet not more Healthfull. |
13. When I consider, That in the Country seventy are Born for fifty eight Buried, and that before the year 1600 the like happened in London, I considered whether a City, as it becomes more populous, doth not, for that very cause, become more unhealthfull, I inclined to believe, that London now is more unhealthfull, then heretofore, partly for that it is more populous, but chiefly, because I have heard, that 60 years ago few Sea-Coals were burnt in London, which now are universally used. For I have heard, that Newcastle is more unhealthfull then other places, and that many People cannot at all endure the smoak of London, not onely for its unpleasantness, but for the suffocations which it causes.
14. Suppose, that Anno 1569 there were 2400 souls in that parish, and that they increased by theBirths 70, exceeding the Burials 58, it will follow, that the said 2400 cannot double under 200. Now, if London be less healthfull then the Country, as certainly it is, the Plague being reckoned in, it follows that London must be doubling it self by generation in much above 200: but if it hath encreased from 2 to 5 in 54, as aforesaid, the same must be by reason of transplantation out of the Country